Breaking bonds, building mistrust: how coups reshape social capital in Africa

Abstract

Military coups have become an increasingly common yet understudied form of institutional shock across Africa, with consequences for social capital that remain poorly understood relative to their economic and political costs. This paper provides the first comprehensive causal analysis of how successful coups affect both horizontal (interpersonal) and vertical (institutional) trust. Using Afrobarometer data (2005–2015) from 24 African countries, we show that successful coups reduce interpersonal trust by 3.3 percentage points and institutional trust by 6.7 percentage points, after controlling for regional coup dynamics. These effects are specific to successful seizures of power: failed coup attempts have no significant effect on interpersonal trust and produce only a short-lived boost in institutional trust that quickly reverses. Temporal dynamics reveal a critical asymmetry: interpersonal trust recovers gradually over 15–20 years, whereas institutional trust follows a boom-bust cycle before entering a monotonic decline, driven primarily by deteriorating government performance evaluations rather than by economic disruption. Young adults and members of ethnic majority groups bear disproportionately severe institutional trust deficits, and the interethnic trust response is itself heterogeneous, with majority group members showing a temporary upward adjustment while minority group members show a much smaller gain. These findings challenge narratives that portray coups as corrective mechanisms, calling instead for sustained, targeted reconstruction that addresses both dimensions of social capital simultaneously.

Philip Akrofi Atitianti, Ph.D.

Ph.D. in Economics

Research interest: International Economics, Development Economics, Applied Microeconomics